This reinforces analysis the Tasmanian Policy Exchange (TPE) and RACT has recently published in these pages and online. Tasmania cannot control global markets, but it can reduce local risk and in doing so better protect communities and put downward pressure on premiums. To do so requires better data, serious adaptation investment, and a culture that treats resilience as everyday business.

Tasmania’s growing digital-twin capability, built from LiDAR mapping down to 3cm combined with other data, can model terrain, vegetation, buildings and infrastructure at property and neighbourhood scale. It can test bushfire, flood, coastal and heat-mitigation options, target investment and verify completed work.

Better data may expose previously hidden risks, but it also replaces broad assumptions with targeted evidence. Verified risk reduction could then be recognised in underwriting and pricing, helping us all see better links between investment and return.

It’s pretty clear that insurability and affordability pressures are structural, not cyclical, and cannot be sustainably addressed without reducing underlying risk. 

The Climate Change Authority’s 2025 Home Safe Report gives that argument national scale: without strong action, extreme-weather disasters are projected to cost Australians $8.7 billion annually by 2050. Every dollar governments invest in adaptation or disaster-risk reduction is estimated to save between $2 and $11 in future recovery costs.

TPE and RACT have sharpened debate through analysis showing that every dollar spent on resilience returns $4 in benefit. The TPE paper, Addressing climate risk and insurance affordability in Tasmania, and an accompanying op-ed in The Mercury estimates Tasmanian flood levees save $19.4 million in premiums annually, demonstrating that resilience is productive infrastructure, protecting household finances, public assets and confidence to invest.

The TPE paper also estimates that about 19,700 residential properties already face more than $1,000 a year for fire and flood cover alone, and without intervention, that number could reach almost 41,000 by 2040.

Compounding this is that the burden is not evenly shared, as many high-risk communities can be among those least able to absorb another increase. Yet active vegetation management within 50 metres of homes could reduce dangerous bushfire exposure in Hobart and Glenorchy by 68 per cent.

Tasmania’s Fire Centre and FireLab give this work international weight. FireLab is the only facility of its kind in the Southern Hemisphere and one of only a few worldwide, connecting fire science, plant flammability, smoke, air quality and human health. As Professor David Bowman has said, “This is not just a Tasmanian asset, it’s a global resource.” Our opportunity is to turn that significance into safer landscapes and credible evidence for insurers.

Last week, I saw this being delivered at a local level in a workshop with Brighton Council staff and Councillors on Climate Mainstreaming with the Centre for Public Impact. Brighton is the only council in Australia to participate in this 8-month pilot that moves action from specialist silos into everyday decisions about procurement, planning, budgeting, infrastructure and assets.

What struck me most in the workshop was the cultural and mindset shift. Climate resilience was increasingly understood not as a separate environmental program, but as core business for prudent management and community wellbeing.

Brighton Council chief executive James Dryburgh captured the opportunity: “So much of the work we need to do in this space will save money or improve financial sustainability over the long term and improve liveability and quality of life for our community.”

Brighton’s heat mapping, tree-canopy baseline and target of 25 per cent urban canopy cover (right trees in the right places) by 2033 show how that mindset becomes practical. When long-term risk shapes purchasing, project design and planning, communities gain cooler streets, safer assets, lower costs and better-prepared neighbourhoods.

Resilience must not be imposed on individual households. People need clear information, practical support, affordable finance or grants, and confidence that collective works complement what they do at home.

Tasmania’s size is an advantage where Government, insurers, researchers, technology providers and communities can test what works in defined places, track outcomes and scale successful approaches. These examples from RACT, TPE, FireLab and Brighton Council show world leading approaches on how we can prepare for a very different future climate, while building liveability and productivity for our communities.